Friday, 25 January 2013

Au revoir, Adios, Auf wiedersehen, Peut etre non (maybe not)

Two years ago the Europhile Conservative party joined forces with the pro-Euro Liberal Democrats to form a coalition that they said was to act in the interest of the country. They were both lying. The Tories would have had the same agenda even if the world debt crisis had never happened. They would still be cutting benefits, they would still be dismantling the NHS and they would still be looking after the interests of their millionaire donors.
The Lib Dem's completely forgot their manifesto the second they got a whiff of power. The pledge they made to students not to increase university fees sacrificed for a seat at the top table.
Little surprise then that spineless PM David Cameron was this week bullied into announcing there will be a referendum on Europe, providing of course the Tories win the next election..
This speech was not in the interest of this country. It was quite simply, in the interest of the Tory party. Running scared of the threat from second hand car salesman, Nigel Farage's UKIP party, Cameron had to promise the referendum or risk losing massive votes to Farage. The historic in- fighting within the Conservatives, posed a bigger threat to Cameron's Premiership than Ed Miliband could ever dream of.
Now that  UKIP's one and only policy has been adopted by Cameron the threat appears to have been averted, for now.
In December, Labour leader Miliband made a speech announcing his plans for One Nation Britain. What we have had from him is one Notion Labour- oppose everything whether you agree with it or not and absolutely never offer an opinion on what you would do.
They opposed benefits cuts, while admitting that it needed reform, they opposed every tax the con Dem's has announced but refused to say they reverse any of them if they were elected next time.

Cameron said in his speech, that he would renegotiate the terms of our EU membership and if we didn't get what we want then we would have a straight in-out vote.

In the aftermath of the speech, Labour demanded to know under what circumstances would Cameron pull us out. Obviously, it would be impossible to tell the world what you are going to ask for and what you will accept and still expect to get any of your demands. It is dishonest, misleading and irresponsible of Labour and the media to demand answers to questions that have not even been asked yet.
The fact is, very few of the people who would be voting in the referendum do not know the facts. There has been no honest debate on the pro's and con's of stying or going.
 There has been scare mongering - Pro Europe liberals have been telling us that the markets will crash , investors will flee the country and we will be completely powerless to ever recover from the recession, which is very much in danger of becoming a treble dip recession.
The Euro sceptic's tell us, we can survive perfectly well on our own, while other adopt a more matter of principle approach, claiming its time we had a say. Others claim that rules made in Brussels, such as the working time directive and the human rights act and Health and Safety are killing our economy.
The truth is that no one knows what we would be having a say on. Europe is changing before our eyes, forced into a closer fiscal union in order for the single currency to survive- the EU of two years in the future, could look a completely different picture to now. It is already in statute that if significant treaty changes happen then we will vote. It is widely considered by many in this country, that government is sovereign, which means effectively, that it applies  its laws as it sees fit.
We don't know what the implications would be if we chose to ignore some of the directives. It is said that if for example we ignored the ruling on prisoners votes that Britain would face hefty fines. What though, would be the consequences if we also chose not to pay the fines?
What would happen if we just said no to the laws of  Europe?
We do not know the answer to these questions, nor do we know if the EU even wants us. What is clear, is that there is little support for Cameron in the EU after he flounced out last time. France and Germany have refused to back his argument that everyone has the chance renegotiate. Unfortunately, a necessity of bargaining is to have something to offer in exchange. Right now Britain has little to offer. We have no money, we a dwindling armed forces, we have no aircraft carriers and are committed to spending billions on renewing Nuclear defence despite the fact we will never ever use it. So how exactly Mr Cameron thinks he can negotiate anything remains to be seen.
The irony is that while this debate rages and dominated all the headlines, the cuts to benefits, the cuts to armed forces, the cuts our health service, the cuts to the police force and the cuts to our pay goes unreported. It would be very sceptical of me to suggest that this is an intentional consequence of Cameron's speech but still it a view that has credibility, considering the austerity package, sold to us to save our country, is not working, and everyone is saying so.
The unintentional consequences could see Cameron not even leading the party at the next election. He has been shown as indecisive and easily pushed around by back benchers, and looks increasingly weak when asked to defend the parties policies. The government is borrowing more than last year. The debt is increasing not decreasing. Growth has been flat lining for months and is showing little sign of improvement. The only success the coalition has had is the success it doesn't speak about in public- the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. the elite are doing fine while the people the Tories hate,  benefits claimants and the working class are getting screwed.
The EU referendum is nothing but a smoke screen that is highly likely to never happen. A smoke screen that is more about Westminster than Brussels.
 All the polls suggest  Labour will win the next election, despite having no policies and a weak leader. Labour will no doubt, continue to do what they did in 13 years in power last time- do little to support the core values the party was founded upon. Working people.
Unless something miraculous happens and the Tories win a big enough majority to rule on their own, the referndum will never happen.

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